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20 августа
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Mr Betfair Friday 20th August
Last night got off to a flying start with Paris St G taking the lead 3 minutes into their game, the went on to score again and the game ended in profit, however that is where the fun ended! The other three all managed to be 0-0 when it came time to trade out, but then all games ended with a scoreline, meaning that each game was a loss of the safety bet. What was even more shocking was thati watched the odds on 4 more games and they all did exactly the same apart from Liverpool at home! What a strange evening.
It is quite rare that the safety bet is ever actually needed but it is used for peace of mind. So just as i state in the manual that when you trade out at 2.0 you are better of leaving the loss on the draw as a goal is highly likely. I think from now on, if it comes time to trade out at 2.0 when the scoreline is still 0 - 0 you should also place a lay bet of your original stake on the 0-0 scoreline. (the same stake that you used when backing a 0-0 scoreline).
I have looked into other methods of making the safety bet a freebie rather than taking away profit, but the only ways to do this would be either backing no next goal before the game, backing under 2.5 goals, laying over 2.5 goals or any other over / under. So to be honest if you start looking at ways of placing the safety bet without cost it can become very expensive because if there is an early goal you will lose out on all the above and your safety which would mean your profit on the actual game would be pennies instead of pounds.
Also, two games over the last week that were out of the range for trading (manchester united and Chelsea's home games) showed great profit by backing 1-0,2-0,3-0 and then laying any other in the correct score two market. It is better to do these bets only if you are able to watch the game yourself and the away team are low in the league. When you are watching, you will be able to tell if you should possibly back 2-1 and 3-1 for break even too.
Back to tonight. The Bundesliga officially kicks off this evening with Bayern Munich hosting Wolfsburg.
I see this game being a 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1 score line
There is a high chance of the game being all equal at half time with either 0-0 or 1-1,
On that note i will be doing the following for this game:
Laying under 2.5 goals when the odds reach 2.0
Scorecasting Muller, Ribery and Klose for the above score lines.
Laying the draw with no safety.
The only other game for us today is Atlanta v Vicenza.
I will be out this evening so won't be able to comment on the matches as such as will just be trading out via my iphone.
For anyone else that uses an iphone, 2 great apps for you are ibet mate, and Livescore.
All the best
Ceri
